Panama ngu enkulu kwaye influential lizwe Kude kube kutshanje Sudhir Ezisixhenxe owamiselwa i-strongest alliance phakathi indoda inzala ka-Ibn Saud Namhlanje, ukungena - kodwa hayi ngaphezulu kwe - kukuba Kubathwesa Prince Muqrin iya kuba yokugqibela unyana kathixo founding yomlawuli ophezulu ukuba nihlale kwi kwetrone. Kodwa Prince Ahmed babe? banga ubunyani bayo seniority yi-ubudala I-unprecedented inyathelo ka-appointing Prince Muqrin njengoko usekela-kubathwesa prince waba intshukumo yi-Ukumkani Abdullah ukuqinisekisa mpuluswa transition kwi-ngqo elizayoU-kubathwesa iinkosana (Sultan kwaye Nayef) kufuneka kwi nje umphinda-phinde ngo wafa ngaphambi ngokuba ookumkani. Ukumkani Abdullah ubeseleyindoda frail, ngexesha, ngokunxulumene ayiqinisekiswanga iingxelo, Ukumkani Salman uva intlungu iingxaki zempilo - into ndivuma kakhulu saliwe yi-Saudi abasemagunyeni. Intlanganiso ye-Allegiance Ibhunga, umzimba iqulethe oonyana grandsons ka-Ibn Saud ukusombulula succession imiba, obubanjwe Kweyokwindla ngowama- kwaye endorsed Abdullah ke elevation ka-Prince Muqrin - kunye proviso ukuba oku ukuqeshwa ubungenakho overturned.
Kodwa hayi zonke iinkosana kaloku ngaloo Allegiance Ibhunga intlanganiso voted kwi-idolo ka-Prince Muqrin ke ukukhuthazwa.
Neeyantlukwano ka-imbono ingaba kusenokwenzeka ukuba kubonakale ngokwabo? ngakumbi ngoku ukuba lowo, njengoko youngest ka-Ibn Saud ke oonyana, sele bafudukela phezulu succession ladder. I-ugqaliso ka-Saudi-wonke speculation malunga elizayo leadership progression centers namhlanje kwi koku grandsons ka-Ibn Saud iya kuba wanyulelwa ukuba baphile ngayo. Oku apho ubudala adage malunga Saudi succession uba pertinent: abo kuthetha kakhulu ukwazi nto abo ukuze bazi kakhulu kuthi nto. Zonke namnye unako ukwenza ngalo kweli banga ngu ku ezinye olomeleleyo candidates, eziliqela ngaye sele bamba yabalawuli izithuba. Nangona kunjalo, enye caveat ingaba kunjalo, abo amandla bakholisa ukuba atyumbe oonyana babo ukuba iindima ukuba uza kuphucula zabo chances ngokulandelelanayo yokuba zibhengezwe. Xa monarchs kwaye kubathwesa prince u-tshintsha, oonyana ingaba kuza kuyo kwaye ngaphandle idolo Ezine oonyana Ukumkani Abdullah abakhoyo-wonke amanani, le ncwadi kuba swift ukukhuthazwa ngu-Prince Mutai (bakhe basekuqaleni s) abo kulo nyaka uphelileyo wonyulwa omncinci ye-anamandla Wesizwe Balinde kwaye ikhabhinethi umphathiswa kwi-i-wadala kuba kuye. Mhlawumbi contender athethe kakhulu ngu-Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, ngubani Umphathiswa Umphakathi - posa ukuba uyise (Kubathwesa Prince Nayef, omnye le Sudhir Ezisixhenxe) ebibanjwe iminyaka emininzi. Prince Mohammed, kunye nomdla ingoma imbali urhulumente, enjoys ethandwa kakhulu ngokubhekiselele kwaye sele impressed yakhe abaququzeleli kwi-utyelelo-United States nakwezinye iindawo. Panama ajongene ezininzi yangaphakathi imingeni, ranging inyuke ukusuka ulutsha intswela-ngqesho, kubuyela ka-jihadists ukusuka e-iraq kwaye Aram, lokukhula criticism ka-Al Saud kwi domestic loluntu media kwaye simmering restiveness kwi-Shia-dominated Empuma Phondo. Njengoko abo ibandakanye ezi ngxaki, yabalawuli iinkosana uza ufuna ukuphepha zinika iintshaba zabo na uphawu lokuba cracks ingaba appearing in the Al Saud edifice. Ngoko ke, xa ephilayo ngxoxo-mpikiswano kusenokuba kulindeleke malunga abo baya ekugqibeleni ze urhuqe baton kuba grandsons ye-founding yomlawuli ophezulu i-likelihood kukuba imicimbi enjalo iya kuba kugqitywe kwindlu yangasese ka-palaces kunokuba kwi-wonke iiforam. Gerald i-butt, owayesakuba BBC Kumbindi Mpuma correspondent, i-jonga analyst kuba Oxford Analytica kwaye ze-oli ekrwada-Nkqubo Iingqiqo.
